Trendspotting, What’s Wrong with Barbie, and 007’s Slump
Agent 007 had a post yesterday that examined her response to a slump. She can’t sell anything right now. Editors aren’t responsive. Nothing’s happening. The scary thing is this isn’t August, this is October. Buying season. If editors aren’t buying now, when will they? In the course of her soul searching, she arrives at the point many writers get to after a round of rejections: self doubt. She is second guessing her ability to pick ‘em, thinking her judgment has deserted her after all these years.
I doubt that’s true. It may be that she’s caught wind of an inflection point, one of those macro economic terms borrowed from mathematics that describes a change in the shape of a curve. When concavity alters, economists get together and have a good cry. The yield curve flattens. We’re all gonna die. Macro uncertainty flows down hill just like another substance we’re all familiar with. Employees will notice changes first in executive behavior; the bosses are less accessible, more prone to squinting, grunting, forgetting your name, visiting exotic places, and generally expressing low key hostility. Why? They sense change. What sold last year and the year before looks tired. They’ve read about the plummeting sales of Barbie Dolls and SUVs. Allen Greenspan is retiring. The Fed Chairman is neutral on SUVs and doesn’t own a Barbie doll. Well, okay, I don’t know that for a fact.
Publishers may sense that what sold last year isn’t going to cut it now. Chick lit has gone from no-brainer to no thanks. It may even be dead. Vampires? Time to return to the grave. Since these two mega trends are fading, the herd is restless. Where to turn? Long rates are rising. Short rates are falling. The only available option is to run down to the shore and throw all your products into the sea. Ken and Barbie go surfing.