If you’ve ever studied economics you were taught the marketplace is efficient. This simple idea has been mangled and mauled by everyone from Leonid Breshnev ( so underrated) to Hilary Clinton, so it’s only fair that to point out that the marketplace may be efficient for publishers of books but not in our lifetime. What we tend to forget is that the marketplace is efficient if sufficient time is allowed to iron out the wrinkles. I’m talking about centuries here: after a century the logic of the book buisness emerges.
1907: Book publishing is young, not quite efficient yet. Word that San Francisco is destroyed by an earthquake in 1906 reaches New York.
1927: Plenty of froth in the Roaring Twenties. The Lost Generation is about to make the marketplace so efficient that Wall Street takes notice. Calvin Coolidge tells Herbert Hoover the secrets of governance.
1947: The Noir Era. Incredibly efficient. Cigarette me, baby.
1957: Other than Elvis all is well. Possibly a high point is reached during the Pax Americana. Europe fights to retain its colonies. California begins to look glamorous.
1967: A major hiccup as the generational baton is applied to the skulls of disenchanted youth. A few cities burn to the ground.
1977: The merger of sideburns and mustaches rekindles the spirit of the 1890s. Moms are urged to “whip inflation now” and stop speculating on oil futures.
1987: Wealth is trickling down. We knew it would.
1997: We feel the pain: someone invents Talk Radio.
2007: Marking the centenary of this analysis word reaches New York that San Francisco has been rebuilt. Efficency skyrockets thanks to book packagers. Madonna’s nanny becomes chair of Random House. Oil futures dip as moms relent. The belief is this inefficiency will correct in 2107. Time is money.